Founded in 1976 by a group of Danish truckers, DSV is today the world’s largest freight forwarder by revenue and a long-held position in SKAGEN Global (3.1% of NAV) and SKAGEN Vekst (2.8% of NAV). Operating in a fragmented market, DSV’s 6% global share makes it the clear leader, a position it has built by successfully combining organic growth with a series of M&A transactions. The company’s first Capital Markets Day in four years – and its first since closing the €14.3 billion Schenker deal – proved to be more confirmation than transformation.
Schenker integration ahead of schedule
Ahead of the CMD just outside Copenhagen, investors were curious to hear about AI and the future of logistics and transportation. Perhaps the biggest question was the progress of DSV’s Schenker integration – a key investment case catalyst for both our funds – following the completion of its largest ever acquisition in 2025.
Management confirmed the process is ahead of schedule, with formal completion expected by year-end. More than 7,000 positions have been shed and the top 500 leadership roles were filled within weeks of closing. The customer franchise has also held up better than many expected, with around 99% of the largest globally managed clients retained and group gross profit growing approximately 2% through an inevitably disruptive year.
There were few details provided on the safeguarding of the remaining organisational culture following such significant workforce change and we will continue to monitor the situation.
The successful integration saw Standard & Poor's upgrade DSV’s outlook to stable from negative and reaffirm its A- rating on the morning of the event, with the credit rating agency citing faster-than-expected deleveraging driven by improved cash flows. This re-opens the possibility of renewed share buybacks ahead of the company’s H1 2027 guidance – another potential catalyst.
Higher 2030 targets, globalisation and technology drive long-term thesis
DSV raised its 2030 targets across all three divisions – Air & Sea, Road and Solutions – with Schenker expected to be EPS accretive in 2026. The long-term thesis remains intact: global trade volumes have compounded at around 3% since 2000, declining only in major crises, and the case for consolidation of a fragmented industry is unchanged. Management believes it is well-positioned for further M&A post-Schenker, contingent on the right opportunity.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the day was the technology update from CIO, Jesper Riis. In our view, DSV is arguably one of the first clear capital market cases showcasing the economic effects of AI deployment. The company integrates AI into its existing stack, helping to automate processes, improve inputs from clients and generate insights from internal data. As management acknowledges, this interweaving across the business fabric means isolating gains are challenging, but they clearly view AI as providing a substantive moat as well as driving significant cost savings. Beyond the previously announced Schenker synergies of DKK 9 billion (€1.2 billion), which are expected by the end of 2027, they announced a further DKK 6 billion (€800 million) annual technology and AI-related gains and DKK 3 billion (€400 million) savings from network optimisation by 2030.
Broader customer franchise, cross-selling opportunities
The combined business now serves more than 400,000 customers. The top 650 globally managed accounts contribute around 55% of group gross profit and 41% of these transact with all three divisions – the potential for further cross-selling remains substantial. Management framed Amazon as a customer first, competitor second, while also highlighting the scale of the market opportunity: "The industry is so vast, the pond is generous for everyone."
Consistent with our view of the best-in-class and no-nonsense management team, CEO Jens Lund characterised the enlarged platform as “Darwinism” and cited arrogance, bureaucracy and complacency as the biggest threats to its success. He ranked his own ‘sleep score’ at 93 – while we won’t read too much into this, DSV shareholders may also be sleeping well after his reassuring update, especially if the Schenker synergies follow.